Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1024.373682 1174.346612 1346.576520 1560.795416 1822.618063 2135.525866 2.542855e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 797.039383 978.639571 1207.811290 1524.568701 1961.508217 2559.681620 3.471928e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 708.336127 905.673445 1169.255024 1558.510295 2139.879973 3014.307350 4.513436e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 647.148919 856.588517 1150.459490 1610.897067 2351.056116 3570.093471 5.924800e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 593.092026 806.653261 1118.265510 1630.611398 2506.685622 4068.508937 7.435241e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 540.501630 751.275869 1068.702753 1611.781785 2590.236886 4459.737764 8.916842e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 507.840758 721.093970 1052.472017 1642.630782 2764.906793 5073.685163 1.123533e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 463.290693 667.611824 992.118100 1586.698176 2762.405950 5317.838571 1.276390e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 427.062748 623.710484 942.326569 1541.680116 2771.214836 5589.199767 1.455696e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 394.697373 583.147340 893.815452 1491.871531 2759.616844 5809.078512 1.635877e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 385.034837 578.785364 906.619274 1560.328452 3018.368876 6806.847864 2.188503e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 372.416671 568.206227 907.057386 1604.002950 3231.269331 7773.781438 2.854247e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 356.489297 551.763419 897.215733 1629.757880 3420.633418 8806.068875 3.751766e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 335.178074 524.400865 864.743560 1603.506695 3475.491858 9451.293178 4.578426e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 323.089737 512.219012 859.425158 1635.399807 3693.365118 10797.840297 6.275797e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 314.741671 506.033274 864.963520 1692.878994 4002.063360 12722.788318 9.318326e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 303.202794 492.996602 855.448655 1713.356162 4208.935096 14395.437114 1.317602e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 288.744266 473.438018 830.833852 1693.453672 4285.154645 15536.234835 1.727130e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 280.289407 464.617498 827.516214 1726.325198 4546.658335 17883.593576 2.686471e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 264.457532 440.602571 790.194957 1666.631409 4474.384484 18321.115138 3.240808e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 250.806088 420.043886 758.729303 1618.589814 4433.696864 18952.746291 4.044953e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 237.727195 399.899675 726.738890 1565.482855 4363.189303 19369.762277 4.935981e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 235.422355 400.790159 740.524313 1638.485410 4793.970632 23749.116520 1.099375e+06